25-26-27 January 2024 Cyclone?

Not quite but 300mm of rain is not out of the question, I still trying to get over the fact that I went from dry and sunny to ooops we are likely swimming to the barbeque. 

 

Astrology for 26th Jan 2024
  • Sun in Aquarius with Pluto: This alignment, especially with Pluto entering Aquarius for the first time since 2023, could indicate a period of significant atmospheric changes, leading to unpredictable weather patterns. In Dayboro, this might translate into variable temperatures and possibly unusual weather events. It’s a time to expect the unexpected, with a potential for innovation in how weather patterns are interpreted.

  • Full Moon in Leo opposite Sun and Pluto: A full moon typically brings higher tidal ranges due to the alignment of the Earth, Moon, and Sun. In Dayboro, this could mean increased moisture and the potential for heavier rainfall around this time. The opposition to Pluto could intensify these effects.

  • Mercury, Mars, Venus, and Saturn in Capricorn: The stellium in Capricorn, a sign associated with structure, could suggest stable atmospheric pressure systems. However, the presence of Mars may disrupt this stability, possibly leading to sudden changes in wind patterns or temperature.

  • Jupiter in Pisces: This can be associated with increased moisture and a higher potential for precipitation. For Dayboro, it might bring about wetter conditions, enhancing rainfall.

  • Uranus in Taurus: As Uranus ends its retrograde motion, we might anticipate changes that break patterns. In weather terms, this could manifest as a shift in seasonal weather expectations—perhaps a sudden warm spell or unexpected dry period.

  • Neptune in Aries: This could stimulate dynamic weather systems, prompting shifts that may lead to the onset of cooler temperatures or brisk winds, driven by the courageous and action-oriented nature of Aries.

Considering these astrological influences and the local geographical factors, here is the weather forecast for Dayboro on January 26, 2024, based on the stars and some historical data:

  • Temperatures may fluctuate more than usual, with a chance of unexpected warm spells.
  • Precipitation is likely to be above average, with the potential for heavy rainfall around the full moon period.
  • Wind patterns could be variable, with potential for sudden gusts.
  • Atmospheric pressure may remain relatively stable but be prepared for possible sudden changes due to the influence of Mars.

This is something everybody can do, it is free and does not require a computer model, but does it tell us anything? In isolation no it does not, but using historical unadjusted data in combination will. This is what I done when I build the farmers almanac, it looks like the rain days are off and I think I know why. I used UTC as local time… That sort of does not work out. It kind messes things up. 

When time I will update it a little, I still think 26th will be dry I still think the rain will stop after 20th give an take and we will have dry weather till the end of the month. 

Computer results

GFS (Global Forecast System) model sounding plot alongside a hodograph, which is used by meteorologists to understand the vertical profile of the atmosphere. This data is crucial in providing a detailed weather forecast as it includes information on temperature, dew point, wind speed, and direction at different atmospheric levels.

From the sounding, we can observe the following:

  • The temperature profile (the red line) and the dew point profile (the green line) are close together at lower levels, suggesting high humidity and the potential for cloud formation and precipitation.
  • The steep lapse rate (the rate at which temperature decreases with altitude) indicates instability, which could lead to convective weather, such as thunderstorms.
  • The hodograph shows wind speed and direction at different heights. The turning of the wind with height suggests the possibility of organized convection, which is necessary for the development of severe weather.

The first one is for January 26, 2024

We can interpret the meteorological conditions as follows:

    • SBCAPE (Surface-Based Convective Available Potential Energy): At 32 J/kg, this value is very low, suggesting that the surface layer of the atmosphere lacks the instability necessary to sustain strong convective storms such as thunderstorms. This level of CAPE is typically not enough to overcome other inhibitory factors in the atmosphere.

    • MLCAPE (Mixed-Layer CAPE): With a value of 1 J/kg, the mixed-layer CAPE, which is considered an averaged parcel of air in the lowest part of the atmosphere, is almost negligible. This indicates an extremely stable lower atmosphere, making the development of convective storms very unlikely.

    • MUCAPE (Most Unstable CAPE): Similarly, at 32 J/kg, the most unstable CAPE indicates that even when considering the most favourable parcel of air for the ascent, there is very little instability available. This reinforces the forecast of minimal convective activity.

    • DCAPE (Downdraft CAPE): A value of 14 J/kg for DCAPE suggests that there is little energy available for descending air parcels, which translates to a low potential for strong downdrafts or gusty winds associated with thunderstorms.

    • Shear: High shear values in the lower 1 km and 3 km of the atmosphere can lead to turbulent conditions and might be indicative of wind shifts or strong gusts near the surface. This can be a concern for aviation and could lead to hazardous conditions even without the presence of thunderstorms.

    • Relative Humidity (RH): A very high relative humidity of 92% between 300-850mb suggests a saturated or nearly saturated atmospheric layer, which is conducive to cloud formation and could contribute to precipitation. However, without sufficient instability, widespread thunderstorm development is unlikely.

    • PWAT (Precipitable Water): At 2.59 inches, the precipitable water value is high and suggests that there is a significant amount of moisture available in the atmosphere. This could lead to heavy rainfall if lifting mechanisms are present, such as frontal systems or orographic lifting, despite the low instability.

The atmosphere on January 26th appears to have high moisture content with the potential for significant rainfall, but the instability necessary for severe convective weather like thunderstorms is lacking.

The high shear near the surface could lead to some gusty conditions, and the high moisture content could result in heavy rain events, but the risk of severe thunderstorms seems minimal based on the updated values provided

GFS-sounding plot with a hodograph for January 27, 2024.

Let’s look at this one for a second:

  • SBCAPE (Surface-Based Convective Available Potential Energy): 32 J/kg, indicating very low potential for convective storms.
  • MLCAPE (Mixed-Layer CAPE): 1 J/kg, essentially negligible, which further suggests little to no potential for thunderstorm activity.
  • MUCAPE (Most Unstable CAPE): 32 J/kg, consistent with low convective potential.
  • DCAPE (Downdraft CAPE): 14 J/kg, indicating very little potential for strong downdrafts or gusty winds from thunderstorms.
  • Shear: The high values of shear in the lower 1 km and 3 km of the atmosphere could suggest strong wind shifts near the surface, possibly leading to gusty conditions.
  • Relative Humidity (RH): Very high RH of 92% between 300-850mb implies a moist atmosphere, which can contribute to cloud formation and precipitation chances.
  • PWAT (Precipitable Water): 2.59 inches, which is quite high and indicates a significant amount of moisture in the atmosphere capable of producing heavy rainfall.

 

Given the high moisture content and significant wind shear but very low CAPE, the forecast for Dayboro on January 27, 2024, would likely include:

  • High chances of rain, potentially heavy at times.
  • Low risk of severe thunderstorms due to the lack of instability.
  • The possibility of strong surface winds due to high shear levels.

This GFS plot, when considered with the Astrological Weather prediction method that takes into account the specific astrological configurations, suggests that the period around January 26 could be marked by an increased potential for precipitation and possibly some severe weather events in Dayboro. Well the astrological data points to severe swing, the computer model data is still loitering about that. 

The astrological positions for the day, especially with Jupiter in Pisces, could suggest an increased likelihood of precipitation, and the full moon opposite the sun and Pluto might amplify these effects, aligning with the meteorological forecast for a wet and possibly stormy day. But I had that for the 27th 🙂 not the 26th. 

Why is the combination of all this tricky, and yes I was wrong, dangerous? 

A severe high tide, often referred to as a king tide, can be influenced by the alignment of the Earth, Moon, and Sun, especially during new and full moon phases when the gravitational pull on the Earth’s oceans is stronger.

With the full moon occurring in Leo opposite the sun and Pluto in Aquarius around January 26, 2024, there is a possibility of higher-than-normal tides around this period.

The full moon’s gravitational influence could result in spring tides, which are higher than the average high tides. Additionally, if this celestial event coincides with onshore winds or low atmospheric pressure (975hPa is low), as it looks like will happen, then many folks will get wet feet.

I still have February 2024 down for flooding… time will tell. 

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