There is a lot of "hype"?
There are a lot of channels writing about this pending cyclone. Some are a bit over the top, but some might be right… Time will tell.
So what is this thing going to do????
I have it landing around the 147E Longitude and 20S Latitude give and take. Then going inland and doing its thing, before picking up more moisture is going to ruin some people’s Australia Day after parties.
If you do decide to get drunk in Brisbane on Australia Day, then invest in some floaties.
Those on the line of Kilcoy to Toowoomba might regret praying for rain a few months ago as they will get plenty.
The cyclone, or should I say cyclonic low, will bring rain to us… and as it looks it brings a LOT in several areas. We in Dayboro most likely will not get 1200mm as I have seen others predicting. There will be plenty on Facebook trumping this thing up way past what it really might be. LOL, I will not be the least surprised that Weather Manipulation etc will be blamed. I know of a few Facebook pages that thrive on that kind of idiocy and scaremongering.
Still, we will get rain, on the 27th or late 26th, the day itself will be fine. I had February pegged for flooding, and I still think that might happen, this might just be a lead-up to it as we have seen in the 2011 scenarios.
Below is the gif, initiated on 00z Jan 21, which is about 10 am local time.
Alarm bells will start ringing.
You should not ignore them, or confuse them with late Christmas celebrations and Santa left the country a few days ago. Always listen to the BOM etc as it is their job to warn you, like they did with the Very HOT and Dry summer they predicted, we are now 2rds in so there is still time.
Keep an eye on Moreton Bay Disaster Portal . It will tell you about road closures and other fine stuff. Ok that is the “legal” things out of the way.
So where do I sit with all of this?
I’ll be sitting on my verandah.. having a quiet cuppa, using my own designed cups. You should get one now, especially with Valentine’s around the corner, but I get off topic.
Back in December, I wrote about a cyclone, but that did not eventuate, this time around the odds are more in my favour. I wrote “All in all I think we are fine here in Dayboro, for those travelling more inland my best guess is that it will travel along a line from Emerald, Kingaroy, Toowoomba dumping good amounts of rain with potential flooding. Then dropping into NSW and heading for the coast again to go out to sea.” I was a bit ahead of my time with that one by the looks of it.
Dayboro will be fine, we have a nice day for our Beer Mile Run, which I think you should join. I most likely will have a sneak peak, I do not like crowds so much. (Bugger I get off topic again :-).
So where do I sit, how do I see this thing evolve?
Here are some numbers from my model, keep in mind it uses data from the same sources everybody else is, I just apply local knowledge to it, that said these numbers should not be used by people in Brisbane etc. Simply because they do not have a Dome Gatekeeper like we have.
| Date | Precipitation in mm | %POP 24 |
| 21-Jan | 0 | 1 |
| 22-Jan | 1.01 | 82 |
| 23-Jan | 0.8 | 89 |
| 24-Jan | 0.43 | 77 |
| 25-Jan | 0.06 | 32 |
| 26-Jan | 8.91 | 94 |
| 27-Jan | 194.78 | 98 |
| 28-Jan | 58.31 | 96 |
| 29-Jan | 0.02 | 14 |
| 30-Jan | 0 | 1 |
What do I think?
Not much, just a normal rainy day here in Dayboro for us… HOWEVER. The ground is wet, very wet, the dams are full, very full. There is still a chance for flash flooding, farm dams upstream might get too full and be compromised if we get the 100mm down poor in a short period. If we get about 300mm over a 24hrs period we should be reasonably ok.
This might be a lead-up to what we saw back in 2011, although we are more in a 2009-type pattern. Which can easily shift.
In 2011 the bridge on Finger Board Road went under, I think it was up to the guard rails. Have a look same applied to the bridge leading out of town into Dayboro Road.
I suggest that places like Silverwood Cafe should be visited so we can eat through their stock before it needs to stop trading due to water levels.
If your business is on this map… well you know what to do.
