June 2024 Weather Prediction Analysis

Every month, I look my weather predictions for Dayboro and compare them with the actual local recordings I do the same for the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) data. June 2024 was a particularly challenging month for high-temperature predictions, as evidenced by the results. This blog post will delve into the discrepancies and offer insights into possible adjustments to improve future forecasts.
Every month, I look my weather predictions for Dayboro and compare them with the actual local recordings I do the same for the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) data. June 2024 was a particularly challenging month for high-temperature predictions, as evidenced by the results. This blog post will delve into the discrepancies and offer insights into possible adjustments to improve future forecasts.

Table of Contents

Analysis of Predictions and Actual Recordings

High Temperature Predictions:

  • My Predictions: A total of 6 out of 30 high-temperature predictions were accurate, resulting in a 20% pass rate.
  • BOM Predictions: The BOM achieved a 90% pass rate with 27 out of 30 high-temperature predictions being accurate.

Clearly, there’s a significant performance gap, indicating that my high-temperature prediction script requires fine-tuning. I think I might have summarised the wrong data set; I will have to look at the scripts. 

Low Temperature Predictions:

  • My Predictions: 16 out of 30 predictions were accurate, equating to a 53.33% pass rate.
  • BOM Predictions: The BOM scored a 73.33% pass rate with 22 accurate predictions.

Although my low-temperature predictions were relatively better, still not what I expected, it usually is well above the 70% score. There’s room for improvement to match BOM’s precision.

Precipitation Predictions:

  • My Predictions: With 27 out of 30 predictions correct, I achieved a 90% pass rate.
  • BOM Predictions: BOM slightly outperformed with a 93.33% pass rate, securing 28 accurate predictions.

Precipitation predictions remain my strong suit, closely aligning with BOM’s results.

In conclusion, while my precipitation predictions are not too dire, the discrepancies in high-temperature predictions highlight that something has gone wrong. I usually have a better score than this

Dayboro.AU

BOM

Inigo Jones

I recently started playing with the Inigo Jones method, so it is only fair to add those results as well. Generally, I create an Inigo Jones method prediction a month and a year in advance

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