What is the weather for 2024??

Just having a bit of "fun" with weather forecasting farmer style. I did use the historical data from what I gathered here on-site.
Weather forecast Dayboro for the year 2024

January

Temperature:
25°C
Possible Rain Days:
2nd, 6th, 9th, 14th, 17th, 21st, 25th, 29th

Rainfall:
241mm

Sunshine Hours:
113

 

February

Temperature:
25°C

Possible Rain Days:
1st, 5th, 8th, 12th, 16th, 20th, 24th, 28th

Rainfall: 
165mm

Sunshine Hours:
98

 

March

Temperature:
24°C

Possible Rain Days:
4th, 7th, 10th, 14th, 18th, 22nd, 26th

Rainfall: 
154mm

Sunshine Hours:
110

 

April

Temperature:
20°C

Possible Rain Days:
1st, 5th, 8th, 13th, 17th, 20th, 23rd, 27th, 30th

Rainfall:
95mm

Sunshine Hours:
119

 

may

Temperature:
17°C

Possible Rain Days:
3rd, 7th, 11th, 15th, 19th, 23rd, 27th, 31st

Rainfall:
91mm

Sunshine Hours:
132

 

June

Temperature:
15°C

Possible Rain Days:
2nd, 6th, 9th, 13th, 16th, 19th, 23rd, 27th, 30th.

Rainfall: 
73mm

Sunshine Hours:
123

 

July

Temperature:
15°C

Possible Rain Days:
3rd, 7th, 12th, 15th, 19th, 23rd

Rainfall:
39mm

Sunshine Hours:
122

 

August

Temperature:
16°C

Possible Rain Days:
1st, 5th, 9th, 13th, 17th, 21st, 24th, 28th, 31st
Rainfall:
42mm

Sunshine Hours:
153

 

September

Temperature:
18°C

Possible Rain Days:
3rd, 7th, 10th, 14th, 17th, 21st, 25th, 29th

Rainfall:
52mm

Sunshine Hours:
135

 

October

Temperature:
21°C

Possible Rain Days:
2nd, 6th, 9th, 12th, 16th, 20th, 23rd, 27th, 30th

Rainfall:
129mm

Sunshine Hours:
142

 

November

Temperature:
23°C

Possible Rain Days:
1st, 4th, 8th, 13th, 16th, 20th

Rainfall:
141mm

Sunshine Hours:
141

 

December

Temperature:
24°C

Possible Rain Days:
3rd, 7th, 10th, 14th, 18th, 21st, 25th, 28th

Rainfall:
114mm

Sunshine Hours:
128

 

 Remember, this forecast is not scientifically verified and should be used with caution.

El Niño?

El Niño is a climatic phenomenon that occurs in the Pacific Ocean but has widespread effects on weather patterns across the globe, including Australia. The unusual warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean characterizes it. 

Here’s what typically happens during an El Niño event:

  1. Ocean Temperatures: Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than average.

  2. Atmospheric Pressure: There is a change in the atmospheric pressure across the Pacific, with higher pressure in the western Pacific and lower pressure in the eastern Pacific.

  3. Trade Winds: The trade winds, which normally blow from east to west along the equator, weaken or may even reverse direction during a strong El Niño.

  4. Rainfall Patterns: These changes in ocean temperature and atmospheric pressure can disrupt typical weather patterns, leading to changes in rainfall and temperature over various parts of the world.

What does El Niño mean for Australia?

In Australia, El Niño is typically associated with:

  1. Lower than average rainfall across eastern and northern parts of the continent.
  2. Increased risk of drought conditions.
  3. Higher than average temperatures.
  4. Potential for bushfires in the southeast due to drier conditions.

The BOM, declared the El Niño. And still have the outlook of dry and hot. In the meantime, some areas of Queensland have had the most rainfall in decades

However, here at the weather station, we are well below our 1108 mm of rain for the year. Currently, we only received 515mm for the year (I wrote this post on 28/11/2023)

Conclusion?

Basically, for the year 2024, we look at more extremes (if you can call it that). Based on their definition, I’m not sure why the BOM is calling El-Nino, as I would expect 2024 to be dryer. It looks like that most, if not all rain will be above the average. Also, dry conditions do not increase the potential for bushfires; fuel load is the biggest contributor, and due to wrong environmental practices, fuel load is high in some places. 

Not in my favour.

I am not a believer in man-made climate change, but I do believe in climate change, as it has been happening since the start of the earth. I believe in solar cycles and that they have a direct impact on the climate on Earth. NASA says it is only minor, but as they overestimate the impact of humans on the climate, they underestimate the impact of space weather on our climate. I am the opposite of what NASA et.al believe. 

In a pickle?

I am in a bit of a pickle at the moment. As per my own 2024 prediction, the temperatures will be above the 2004 -2023 average measured here at the weather station… what gives? 

At the time of writing the global temperature departure from the 1991-2020 average is +0.93°C. That is not supposed to happen. 

Then again, none of the predictions of the man-made climate supporters has come true either. So I am among “great”.  Ice gains in Greenland are at a record high, and the EU is already under heavy snow in some areas. The NOAA/Rutgers Weekly NH Snow Cover Extend CDR is closing in on the 57-year average max

It is a bit all over atm. 

Time will tell

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