Right, so the Dayboro Show is back. Saturday 4 and Sunday 5 July 2026, at the Showgrounds on Mount Mee Road. The Dog Show kicks it all off on the Friday with free entry for spectators. And the question everyone always asks me first is the same one. What is the weather going to do?

Quick note on the dates. I have these from the official Show page and they are right for 2026, but the Show does not always sit on the exact same weekend each year. So always check the official Dayboro Show page for the confirmed dates and times before you head out. Do not just trust me, I am the weather bloke, not the committee.

I controlled the forecast this morning and ran it against the history. Short version. It looks good. Properly good. The kind of show weekend you hope for, not the kind you grit your teeth through.

The forecast for the show weekend

This is our own Dayboro Model, run this afternoon, 30 June. It reaches the show weekend now, so these are our numbers, not somebody else's. The show is still four and five days out, so it can shift a touch before the gates open, but the pattern is settled and the model has been steady on it across the last few runs. That is the part that gives me confidence.

Source: Dayboro Model forecast for Dayboro, run 30 June 2026. Read it as a guide, not a guarantee. I will update if it moves.

And here is the bit I like. I controlled our numbers against the Bureau's, and the two agree. The Bureau also has Saturday sunny and the weekend dry, near enough the same temperatures. When our model and the BOM land on the same answer four days out, that is about as confident as a forecast gets at this range. Both are saying the same thing. Sunny and dry for the Show.

For what it is worth, our long range run from back at the start of June, the Inigo Jones based one that looks weeks ahead, was a bit gloomier and had the weekend cooler with a shower about. That is a five week old long range guess though, and the short range has since firmed up dry. When the close-in read and the far-out read disagree, the close-in one wins. On this one everything current is siding with sunny.

So pack a jacket for the morning. It will be cold early, single digits with a bit of fog hanging in the low ground when the dew is still on the grass. That fog burns off by mid morning. By the time the wood chop gets going and the kids are loose in Sideshow Alley you will have peeled the jacket off and be reaching for the sunscreen. Classic Dayboro winter day. Cold foggy start, warm sunny middle, jumper back on at sundown for the fireworks.

How does this stack up against shows gone by?

This is the part I find interesting. The Show usually lands around the start of July, so I went back through the weather records for the first week of July all the way back to 2006. Roughly twenty years of that early July window. The exact show weekend has moved around a bit year to year, so read the dates in the table as the early July slot rather than a claim about which weekend the Show ran each year. The point is the climate pattern, and that pattern is reassuring if you are the worrying type.

Early July in Dayboro is one of the driest, most settled stretches of the whole year. Across those years the average top was 21°C and the average overnight low was around 8 to 9°C. Of the eighteen years I have clean records for, eleven of them had not a single properly wet day in that first week. Most show weekends are dry. That is just the truth of the timing, and whoever picked this date for the show knew what they were doing.

Source: Dayboro station daily records, 2006 to 2025. I left out a couple of readings that were obviously a sensor having a bad day, no point quoting numbers I know are wrong.

Well, the honest read is this. The wettest show weekend in twenty years was 2022, and even that was showers and a chill, not a washout. The rest range from pleasant to glorious. Sicne the 2026 forecast is sitting right in the sunny half of that history, I reckon we are in for one of the good ones. The records are on our side and so is the Bureau.

Right, so why should you actually go?

Because it is the best day on the Dayboro calendar, that is why. The weather is going to play along, so you have run out of excuses.

There is the wood chopping and the lawnmower racing, which is exactly as good as it sounds. Eljay Freestyle Motor X are doing their stunt display. Saturday night there is a comedy show and then the fireworks, which is worth staying for even with the cold setting in. Sunday brings the bull ride. All weekend you have got sheep shearing, the dog high jump, horse events, camp oven cooking going over the coals, trade sites, the food vendors, and Sideshow Alley with the rides and games and showbags for the kids.

The Show Kitchen runs homemade meals all weekend, parking on site is free, and the kids get in for nothing. Adults are $20, concession and high schoolers $15. For a full day out, two days if you do both, that is about as good value as you will find anywhere.

I will keep an eye on the forecast through the week and let you know if anything changes. But on what I am looking at right now, you should be making plans, not weather contingencies. Get along to the Show. Bring the family. It is going to be a beauty.

See you there.

All the show details, times and tickets

Henk