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Forecast Accuracy Analysis

Track how well our predictions match actual weather conditions

-- Analysis Period
-- Total Data Points
-- Report Date
A note about our Dayboro Model We’re aware the Dayboro Model is currently tracking behind BOM on overall accuracy. We’re actively working on calibration improvements — the model’s microclimate adjustments need tuning after the wet March conditions shifted some of the baseline parameters. We publish these numbers transparently because that’s the point of this page: you can see exactly how each forecast source performs, warts and all. We’ll get it sorted.

Forecast Performance by Parameter

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Weather Parameter Dayboro.au BOM Inigo Jones Best

Model Performance Comparison

90-Day Accuracy Trend

Each point is a 14-day rolling composite score so single-day noise from rare events does not distort the line. A static snapshot can be cherry-picked. A trend cannot.

Dayboro Model and BOM blend temperature, rainfall, wind, UV and humidity. Inigo Jones forecasts only temperature and rainfall, so its line uses just those parameters.

How We Calculate Accuracy

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Temperature Accuracy

Graduated scoring with realistic thresholds. A 5°C error is considered significant.

  • MAE: Average forecast error magnitude
  • Bias: Positive = forecast too high
  • Accuracy %: Based on MAE vs threshold

Precipitation Accuracy

Categorical and binary accuracy with proper rain/no-rain detection.

  • Rain event threshold: 0.5mm
  • Categories: None, Light, Moderate, Heavy
  • POD: Probability of Detection
  • FAR: False Alarm Ratio

Composite Score

Weighted average of all metrics for overall accuracy.

  • Temperature: Weight 3.0
  • Precipitation: Weight 2.5
  • Wind: Weight 1.5
  • UV Index & Humidity: Weight 1.0 each

Data Sources

Daily comparison of forecasts against recorded weather station data.

  • Dayboro.au: Local Dayboro Model
  • BOM: Bureau of Meteorology
  • Inigo Jones: Temperature & rainfall only

Last updated: --

Accuracy metrics are calculated by comparing forecasts with actual recorded conditions

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