Inigo Jones Step 2 – Data Collection and Preparation.
Reliable forecasting hinges upon accurate and comprehensive data, and here at Dayboro.au, we rely on several foundational datasets to ensure the robustness and clarity of our weather forecasts. Understanding these datasets, their origins, and their significance will help anyone interested in weather forecasting or meteorology appreciate the depth and rigour involved in our predictions. Below, we explore each of the critical data sources, explaining their importance, how to find them, and the meaning behind each data element.
So lets dive right in.
Astronomical Algorithms – Jean Meeus
The cornerstone of our forecasting method is precise astronomical calculations, and no resource is more critical than Jean Meeus’s authoritative work, “Astronomical Algorithms.” Meeus’s book is a standard reference for astronomers and weather forecasters alike, providing detailed methods for accurately calculating the positions of the Sun, Moon, planets, and stars.
Astronomical (Often confused as Astrology) Algorithms help forecasters with:
Right Ascension (RA): Similar to terrestrial longitude, Right Ascension measures the position of celestial objects along the celestial equator.
Declination (DEC): This is akin to latitude and measures how far north or south a celestial object is from the celestial equator.
You can find Jean Meeus’s book online from various astronomy bookstores, libraries, or specialized websites like Amazon.
Planetary Events
The alignment and interaction of planets significantly influence our long-range forecasts. Specific events such as conjunctions (when planets appear close together in the sky) and oppositions (when planets are directly opposite from Earth’s perspective) are essential.
Conjunction: Occurs when two planets appear very close together in the sky, affecting Earth’s magnetic and weather patterns significantly.
Opposition: This event occurs when two planets are directly opposite each-other from Earth’s perspective, often indicating potential weather extremes.
Data for planetary events can be obtained from reliable astronomical databases such as NASA’s JPL Horizons system, astronomy software applications, or specialist forecasting services like the United States Naval Observatory’s online database.
Historical Weather Data
Historical weather data is critical to our Dayboro forecasts as it provides a foundation to identify patterns and make correlations between past and future weather phenomena. We have collected data at the exact same spot here in Dayboro for the last 21 years at 2.5-second intervals. Key historical events we analyze include significant floods, hailstorms, heatwaves, and other extreme weather occurrences in Dayboro and Queensland:-
- Floods: Historical flood data, such as those occurring in February 1931 and 2011, provide insights into rainfall patterns and river behaviour.
- Heatwaves: Dayboro’s record temperatures, such as the 40.3°C recorded in January 2017, inform predictions regarding future heat extremes.
- Storms and Cyclones: Events like Tropical Cyclone Yasi in 2011 and Cyclone Debbie in 2017 help establish patterns and correlations with astronomical events.
- Heat island effects: Creation of microclimates due to the construction of roads and houses. Often not taken into consideration by others.
Local Geographical and Climatic Data
Dayboro’s specific climate and geography significantly influence local weather conditions. Our forecasting model emphasizes the importance of understanding how local features impact weather.
Climate Classification: Dayboro experiences a humid subtropical climate characterized by hot, humid summers and mild, dry winters.
Elevation and Topography: Situated 47 meters above sea level, Dayboro’s slightly elevated position influences temperature moderation and rainfall distribution.
Average Annual Temperature and Rainfall: With an average annual temperature of 19.4°C and rainfall of 1130.6 mm, knowing these averages assists in contextualizing weather anomalies and trends. We have been collecting data at the same spot since 2004 at 2.5-second intervals.
Surrounding Mountains and Sea Breezes: The proximity to the D’Aguilar Range creates unique local weather phenomena such as rain shadow effects, altering rainfall and wind patterns.
This geographical and climate data can be sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Moreton Bay Regional Council publications, and local geographical information systems available through Queensland government resources online.
Historical Severe Weather Events (Significant Weather Events Dataset)
This dataset covers extreme weather events specifically recorded in Dayboro and Queensland, offering historical context crucial for forecasting accuracy. Events include:
Severe floods such as February 1931 and February 2011
Extreme heatwaves, including the record high temperature of 40.3°C in January 2017
Notable hailstorms, like the one in May 2021 with hailstones up to 5 centimetres in diameter
Cold snaps, like the record low temperature of 4.4°C in June 2007
Historical severe weather event data can be found through local government records, archived news articles accessible via Trove, and historical climate records published by BOM.
Solar Cycle and Sunspot Data (SN_d_tot_V2.0)
Solar cycles and sunspot numbers are critical elements in our long-range forecasting. Sunspots significantly influence Earth’s magnetic field, climate conditions, and weather phenomena:
Sunspot Numbers: Reflect solar magnetic activity, which is crucial in predicting solar influences on Earth’s weather.
Solar Cycle Predictions: Long-term predictions of solar activity are essential for anticipating climate impacts, particularly for forecasting droughts and floods in Queensland.
Data for solar cycles and sunspot activities are readily available from international sources such as the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) by NOAA, NASA’s solar data archives, and other specialized solar observatories.
Moon Phases and Lunar Distance
The Moon profoundly affects weather through its influence on tides and atmospheric moisture:
Moon Phases: Data includes dates and times of the New Moon, First Quarter, Full Moon, and Last Quarter, which is crucial for predicting rainfall and storm events.
Lunar Distance: The closest and farthest lunar distances (perigee and apogee) significantly impact tidal ranges and atmospheric moisture.
Lunar data can be easily sourced from astronomical almanacs such as the American Ephemeris, Australian astronomical societies, BOM moon data, or numerous online astronomy resources.
Each of these datasets represents a critical component of the Inigo Jones forecasting method. When combined thoughtfully and analyzed meticulously, these data sources provide Dayboro residents with accurate and reliable long-range weather forecasts. At Dayboro.au, we encourage everyone to explore these resources personally to deepen their understanding and appreciation of the natural elements shaping our weather and lives.
