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20 years of local weather history, spray windows, harvest timing, pest alerts, all from the station on the hill, not a BOM postcode average.

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Local weather, growing guides, and the science behind it all

Most of what you'll find here is about Dayboro, what's happening with the weather, what to plant, when to spray, how the season's shaping up. That's the core of the site and always will be.

But since I started digging into long-range forecasting and weather cycles back in 2004, the research has taken me well beyond the valley. I write about climate drivers, CO2, solar cycles, planetary influences on weather patterns, the kind of topics that attract readers from all over Australia and beyond. If you've landed here from a search and you're not from Dayboro, welcome. You're in good company.

I'll be upfront about where I stand: I think natural cycles are a bigger driver of climate variability than the mainstream consensus gives them credit for. But I'm not waiting on the data to agree with me, I follow the evidence wherever it goes. Every claim I make links back to real data, published research, or 20 years of station records from this hill. When the numbers don't support my hypothesis, I say so.

A note on the science posts: Some posts here read more like research papers than local weather updates. They're written to the same standard, cited sources, real data, transparent methodology. If you disagree with a finding, the data is there for you to check. That's the point.

Dayboro BLOG

Division 11 Scorecard: Cr Ellie Smith’s First Year, Checked Against the Minutes

Independent scorecard auditing Cr Ellie Smith’s first year across 8 priority areas. Full attendance proven against official council minutes; outcomes lag advocacy.

August 13, 2026
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The Weather Prophet Over the Range: What I Found When I Tested Inigo Jones

Inigo Jones forecast Queensland seasons from planetary cycles at Crohamhurst, one valley over from us. I rebuilt his method and ran it against 130 years of rainfall, then went back and tested the planets and the sun directly. Here is what I found, and where a fan of the man lands when the numbers come back empty.

August 9, 2026

July 2026 in Dayboro: the driest July I have on record, and the air was not even dry

July 2026 delivered Dayboro’s driest July on record with 7.8 mm rainfall and record warm days, yet overnight lows stayed remarkably normal despite clear skies.

July 31, 2026
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The Quiet Revision, Part Two: The Worst Case Climate Scenario Just Got Cut Again

In April the climate science community quietly retired its most cited worst case scenario. This month the final CMIP7 numbers landed and they cut the projections again. We pulled the data apart and found something odd on the way through: the CO2 went down, and the projected warming went up.

July 16, 2026

Strongest El Nino in 75 Years? We Checked Every Number in the Headline

A claim by claim verification of the July 2026 super El Nino headlines against raw NOAA CPC weekly data, the Bureau of Meteorology SOI archive, multi model forecasts and a twenty year Dayboro rain gauge record. The packaging is hype. The ocean is not.

July 15, 2026

June 2026 in Dayboro: the wettest June in ten years, in the middle of an El Nino

Dayboro recorded 95.9 mm in June 2026, the wettest June in ten years, despite an established El Niño. Days ran warm, nights stayed mild, and not a single frost. Here is how it compares with every June since 2008.

July 13, 2026
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Dayboro show Weather

The Dayboro Show is on 4–5 July 2026 at the Showgrounds. Our Dayboro Model and the Bureau both call sunny and dry, tops near 24°C with cold foggy starts. Pack a jacket for the morning, sunscreen for the middle.

June 30, 2026
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Super El Nino 2026/27: Is This 1877 Again, and What Does It Mean for Dayboro?

A data-grounded look at whether the 2026 super El Nino really echoes the catastrophic 1877 event, testing the ocean, sunspot, planetary and Indian Ocean Dipole evidence, with consequences for southeast Queensland and a grow-your-own resilience message.

June 23, 2026

Prose versus Table, I did it wrong.

I tend to confuse myself at the best of days, and as it so happens… I buggered it up yet again. The website was reading the information from the prose it produces, instead of reading it from the model table.

June 11, 2026

Autumn 2026

What was the weather in Autumn 2026

June 6, 2026

June – 2026 Whats in store?

June 2026 in Dayboro: cooler than average with frost on the cards for clear nights, rain a touch below the long run, and 18 years of our own station data showing what a real Dayboro winter actually does.

May 21, 2026
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The Quiet Revision: How Climate Scientists Removed Their Most Cited Scenario, and What It Reveals About Scientific Consensus

CMIP7’s new scenario framework formally labels SSP5-8.5, the worst-case projection used in thousands of climate studies, as implausible. Examines what the revision changes, what it doesn’t, and what the 97% consensus actually measured.

May 2, 2026
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May 2026 Weather outlook

The May 2026 outlook as I called it before the month started. The bands are on the record, judge me on them.

May 1, 2026

el-nino 2026 for Dayboro

International forecast models now show strong consensus on El Niño development between May and July 2026. This paper analyses what that means for Dayboro.

April 27, 2026

Why your Dayboro veggie patch just got a lot more important

Diesel shortages eased; fertiliser is the bigger story. AUSVEG: 51% of Australian veg growers have ≤3 weeks fertiliser left, 27% have stopped or reduced planting. Urea up 65%. What’s coming to your supermarket, and why a Dayboro veggie patch just got smarter.

April 17, 2026

Dayboro in April 2026, Events, Weather and What to Plant

What’s on in Dayboro and Samford this April, what the Lyndhurst Hill station actually recorded, and what to plant as the first cold mornings arrive.

April 16, 2026

Fire danger 2026

20 years of Lyndhurst Hill weather data + BoM seasonal outlook, read for a Dayboro property owner. What the numbers actually show and what’s worth doing.

April 14, 2026

Autumn 2026 – The Valley Cools Down

Autumn 2026 in the Dayboro valley started wet and cool, then flipped dry. Here’s what 13 years of station data, the Inigo Jones pipeline, and the Dayboro Model forecast for the rest of the season.

April 9, 2026
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Plant With Me, A Morning (Seed to Plate) Email That Actually Knows Your Garden

A daily morning email that checks your Garden Buddy plants against real Dayboro weather and tells you exactly what your garden needs today, from seedling care to harvest and preserving.

April 8, 2026
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March 2026 Weather Review, Dayboro’s Month of Two Halves | Dayboro Weather

March 2026 split in two: 208mm of rain and 50,000 lightning strikes in the first half, then a dry slide into autumn with Dayboro’s third-coldest March night on record.

April 5, 2026
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Vegetable Price Outlook, April 2026

Vegetable prices across four Brisbane supermarkets are surging. Tomatoes up 26% in a month, lettuce at $16/kg, garlic at $36/kg. Three weather disasters and rising diesel explain why.

April 4, 2026
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CO2 Does Not Drive Global Temperature: What 600 Million Years of Evidence Actually Shows

Six hundred million years of geological evidence, ice cores, ocean sediments, and the landmark 2026 Allan Hills study, shows CO2 and global temperature frequently move in opposite directions.

March 30, 2026
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Dayboro Buddy – App

Dayboro Buddy is a free Android app delivering real-time weather from the Lyndhurst Hill station, seasonal garden insights for Dayboro’s microclimate, and local community events, built for the valley.

March 24, 2026
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Dayboro Creeks flooding.

Live BOM creek level readings for five Dayboro crossings including Kobble Creek, Young’s Crossing, and Lees Crossing, plus a 7-day crossing risk forecast built from historical flood data and the Dayboro Model.

March 9, 2026
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Flood probability march/april 2026

A data-driven flood risk assessment for Dayboro Valley covering March and April 2026, drawing on Stanley River history, current dam levels, La Niña conditions, and the Inigo Jones analytical framework.

March 8, 2026
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Updates March 2026

March 2026 site updates including personalised solar production forecasts, upgraded 30-day climate outlook with live indicators from NOAA and BOM, membership page fixes, and encrypted solar array storage for members.

March 5, 2026
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Tropical Lows March 2026

Four tropical lows developed simultaneously across northern Australia on 4 March 2026. A scientific analysis of Tropical Low 29U’s cyclone probability and the realistic threat to Dayboro in the D’Aguilar foothills.

March 4, 2026
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February 2026 Forecast Accuracy Scorecard: Dayboro Model vs BOM

February 2026 forecast accuracy scorecard comparing the Dayboro Model, BOM, and Inigo Jones against recorded station data. Temperature, rainfall, humidity, and wind results with full metrics tables.

March 1, 2026
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Moon Planting Calendar

A daily moon planting calendar for Dayboro, Queensland. Lunar phases, zodiac signs, elemental influences, and specific planting advice tailored to local subtropical conditions.

February 27, 2026
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Why Dayboro’s Valley Microclimate Affects Your Solar Panels

Understanding Dayboro’s valley microclimate is crucial for accurate solar panel output predictions. Learn how cold air drainage, fog, and tilted panels affect your system’s performance.

February 22, 2026
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When the Data Disagrees

This paper examines several common positions in climate discussions, verifying claims with peer-reviewed data and actual measurements from instruments. Is the science settled?

February 21, 2026
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Dayboro.au Radar

New on the site: a live rain radar and lightning map that shows you everything in one spot. Rain moving across SEQ, real-time lightning strikes colour-coded by distance, storm
cell tracking with directional arrows, and a flashing alert when lightning gets within 50km of Dayboro. No more juggling the Bureau on one tab and lightning on another, just
open dayboro.au/radar/ and you’re sorted.

February 20, 2026

Is the EPA repeal on CO2 correct?

A review of the 2009 EPA Endangerment Finding’s scientific basis, using real-world data to test climate model projections.

February 13, 2026
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Updates February 2026

Catch up on the latest updates at Dayboro AU Weather, where we’re working to improve your experience and provide valuable resources behind a paywall for members.

February 13, 2026
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January 2026 in Dayboro: What Actually Happened, Where I Missed It, and Why It Matters

January 2026 was unusually hot and dry in Dayboro. This post explains what happened, where the forecast missed, and why local conditions amplified the outcome.

February 1, 2026

Weather Server confusion

It

January 15, 2026

December Weather in Dayboro: 2024 vs 2025 Forecasts Reviewed

December weather in Dayboro: a review of the past two years’ forecasts and how they held up against reality.

January 9, 2026
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Updates January 2026

Get the latest news from Dayboro AU Weather, including bug fixes and new features for a better user experience.

January 1, 2026
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Evening Market Intelligence

Get the latest on Dayboro’s local vegetable prices and global commodities, including precious metals, energy, food staples, and financial markets, with our daily evening market intelligence report.

January 1, 2026
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Natural Forces Driving Current Climate Patterns

Understanding natural climate cycles is key to separating short-term variability from long-term climate change. Learn which natural forces drive climate fluctuations and where their limits lie.

December 21, 2025
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Dayboro Vegetable Growing Guide: Smarter Local Updates

Discover the new Dayboro Vegetable Growing Guide, rebuilt to provide reliable planting advice based on local conditions, not averages. Learn how it works and why it matters for your garden.

December 18, 2025
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Updates December 2025

Discover the latest updates on weather forecasts, events, and more in Dayboro, Queensland, including new features like intelligent planting and a revamped weather buddy.

December 9, 2025
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Updates Nov 2025

Get the latest updates from Dayboro AU Weather, covering weather forecasts, local guides, and community insights.

December 7, 2025
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Dayboro 2026 Climate Outlook: What to Expect This Year

Stay ahead of the weather in Dayboro with our 2026 climate outlook, featuring updated forecasts, planting calendars, and self-sufficiency notes.

December 1, 2025
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Dayboro Summer 2025 Weather Forecast vs BOM

Discover how Dayboro’s summer weather forecast compares to the BOM’s outlook and what it means for locals, including temperature and rainfall predictions.

November 26, 2025
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Why This Storm Season Isn’t “Just November to March”, And Why 2025 Is Bucking the Trend

Four rare climate cycles converge in 2025, amplifying Dayboro’s storm season to 1.8–2× normal rainfall. November’s data validates the long-range forecast.

November 25, 2025
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Winter Weather Wrap-Up: Dayboro 2025

Winter 2025 in Dayboro matched the five-year temperature average at 14.0°C with 105.5 mm rainfall, yet locals with rainwater tanks reported severe shortages due to scattered showers and high evaporation rates.

November 7, 2025
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Dayboro Christmas Weather Forecast 2025-2026 – Your Ultimate Guide

A glimpse ahead at the 2025-2026 Dayboro Christmas Weather Forecast, crafted especially for our community, featuring temperatures, rain chances, and planning tips.

November 6, 2025
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Member Benefits – Weather Services – Local Forecasts That Actually Mean Something

Explore Dayboro AU Weather’s member benefits: real-time local conditions, air quality monitoring, detailed forecasts and long-range planning tools designed for Queensland valley weather.

October 13, 2025
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My View: Dayboro’s Winter & Spring Rainfall Story (2006–2025)

A 20-year rainfall analysis revealing Dayboro’s winter and spring extremes, climate cycles, and practical guidance for growers and property owners.

October 10, 2025
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Dayboro Flood Risk Outlook 2025-2026

Flood risk forecast and outlook for Dayboro, Queensland covering 2025–2026 period with real-time safety alerts.

October 6, 2025
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Daily Weather Simple – Affordable 6 AM Weather Email for Dayboro

Daily Weather Simple delivers Dayboro’s essential weather data to your inbox at 6 AM, temperature, wind, rainfall, UV index, and 10-day forecast for just $3.95/month.

October 1, 2025
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Dayboro Buddy Updates – Air Quality, Events & Weather at Your Fingertips

Dayboro Buddy gets a major refresh with new Air Quality Buddy, faster weather display, and smarter events calendar. Here’s what’s changed.

September 26, 2025
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Daily Weather Essentials Email Report

Daily Weather Essentials delivers complete weather intelligence to your email inbox every morning, featuring real-time conditions, 10-day forecasts, UV index, and rainfall tracking.

September 14, 2025
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Division 11 Candidates “Guide”

Independent accountability assessment of Division 11 candidates contesting Moreton Bay City Council by-election September 2025. Scored on transparency, realism and community engagement.

September 9, 2025
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Dayboro Buddy -> Garden Buddy

Garden Buddy is your personal trainer for a thriving garden in Dayboro, providing hyperlocal weather data, exact watering amounts, and real-time pest alerts to help you grow your best plants yet

July 16, 2025
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Dayboro Forecast Accuracy – How Reliable Are Our Predictions?

Stay ahead of the weather game with Dayboro AU Weather’s accuracy report, featuring percentage scores, visual comparisons, and expert recommendations.

July 9, 2025
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Dayboro Buddy – Dayboro Grapevine Editions

Discover the convenience of digital reading with Dayboro Buddy, featuring all issues of The Dayboro Grapevine online.

July 4, 2025
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Dayboro Buddy – Your Pocket Guide to Dayboro

Stay connected to Dayboro life with Dayboro Buddy, your digital mate for local news, weather, events, and more!

July 4, 2025
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Dayboro Visitors over the last 30 days

Get real-time traffic statistics for Dayboro AU, including unique visitors, page views, and more. See how many people are engaging with the site every month!

June 30, 2025
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