The Headline: Dry Now, Showers Mid-Week
Monday is looking good — mostly sunny, low rain chance, temperatures into the low 30s. Enjoy it, because Tuesday and Wednesday both carry a 63% shower chance as a trough pushes through. The back half of the week is still outside the reliable forecast window, so check back Wednesday for the Thursday-onwards picture.
Late February in Dayboro means warm days and comfortable nights. This week fits that pattern — maxes in the 31–32°C range, overnight lows sitting around 18–19°C. No extreme heat, no cold snaps. Pretty typical for this time of year.
Day-by-Day Outlook
| Day | Date | Min | Max | Rain Chance | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 23/02 | 18.5°C | 31.4°C | 10% | Mostly sunny |
| Tuesday | 24/02 | 19.0°C | 31.5°C | 63% | Showers possible |
| Wednesday | 25/02 | 18.7°C | 32.3°C | 63% | Showers possible |
| Thursday–Sunday | 26/02–01/03 | Beyond current forecast window — update due Wednesday | |||
Dayboro Model forecast. Source data blends Dayboro Model and Inigo Jones cyclic methodology with local calibration.
How Did Last Week’s Forecasts Hold Up?
Thursday through Sunday (19–22 February) delivered a run of dry, sunny weather. The Dayboro Model had those days pegged correctly — calibrated rain chances of 11%, 5%, 0% and 3% respectively. The raw signal coming in was much higher (around 59% each day), but the local calibration system dialled it back close to zero. That call was right.
Over the past 30 days, the Dayboro Model is sitting at 75.5% composite accuracy against BOM’s 72.6%. Temperature accuracy is strong at 96.9% versus BOM’s 95.6%. Not a massive margin, but consistently above for a station-specific model.
What’s Happening Across the Region
SE Queensland as a whole is running dry this week. Brisbane, the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast are looking at an average rain probability of just 17% with under 1mm expected across the week. We’re in similar territory up here in the D’Aguilar Range foothills.
Further north, Darwin and the Top End are in full wet season mode — 75% rain probability and around 93mm expected for the week. Cairns sits at 45% with 58mm forecast. That monsoonal moisture isn’t making it this far south right now, which is why our skies have been clear. A shallow trough is the culprit for Tuesday and Wednesday’s shower chances — it’s not a tropical system, just the typical late-summer pattern as moisture pulses south along the ranges.
If the trough fires up more than expected on Tuesday or Wednesday, amounts could be higher than a casual “showers possible” suggests. Worth keeping an eye on.
Garden and Outdoor Tip
With snails, slugs, late blight and downy mildew all on the high-risk list right now, the mid-week showers are worth watching if you’ve got tomatoes, potatoes or leafy greens in the ground. Wet foliage after warm days is exactly what late blight needs to get going. Before Tuesday, clear any dead leaf litter from around your plants and check the undersides of leaves for early signs of blight. If you’re going to apply a copper-based spray, Monday is the day to do it — gives it time to set before the rain arrives.
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