The Week Ahead
Good news if you’ve got outdoor plans this weekend — it’s going to be dry and sunny right through to Monday. Temperatures will sit well above average in the low-to-mid 30s, with overnight lows in the high teens. The heat eases a touch through the middle of the week as moisture increases and shower chances rise on Tuesday and Wednesday. Not a washout, but worth keeping an eye on.
Day-by-Day Forecast
| Day | Date | Min (°C) | Max (°C) | Rain Chance | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday | 20/02 | 19.7 | 33.1 | 5% | Sunny |
| Saturday | 21/02 | 18.2 | 31.5 | 0% | Sunny |
| Sunday | 22/02 | 18.8 | 30.7 | 3% | Sunny |
| Monday | 23/02 | 18.5 | 31.4 | 10% | Mostly sunny |
| Tuesday | 24/02 | 19.0 | 31.5 | 63% | Showers possible |
| Wednesday | 25/02 | 18.7 | 32.3 | 63% | Showers possible |
Forecast from the Dayboro Model. All temperatures in degrees Celsius.
How Did Last Week’s Forecasts Hold Up?
Over the past 30 days, the Dayboro Model has been hitting 75.5% overall accuracy against observations here at the station, compared to 72.6% for BOM over the same period. Temperature accuracy is particularly strong — 96.9% for the Dayboro Model versus 95.6% for BOM. That’s a solid result for a community-run system competing directly with the national forecaster. Rain timing and probability remain the hardest thing to get right, as always.
The Bigger Picture
The monsoon trough is sitting well to our north right now, dumping serious rain across Cairns and the Wet Tropics — over 43mm expected there this week — and the Top End is copping its fair share too with around 34mm forecast for Darwin and surrounds. A blocking ridge is keeping SE Queensland largely sheltered from all of that, which explains our dry start to the week.
By Tuesday, that ridge is expected to weaken and a trough or increased moisture push from the north could bring shower activity to the ranges and D’Aguilar foothills. Confidence in the exact timing and intensity is moderate at this range, so don’t cancel plans based on Tuesday alone — but have a back-up plan ready.
The rest of the country is pretty quiet. Western NSW, Alice Springs and Perth are all warm and dry. This is a fairly typical late-February pattern for SE Queensland — sitting on the edge of the monsoon zone, waiting for it to push south far enough to matter.
Garden and Outdoor Tip
With the Dayboro area currently on alert for snails, slugs, early blight and late blight, this weekend’s dry, sunny conditions are actually a good window to act. Blight thrives on wet foliage — if you’ve got tomatoes or potatoes, get a copper-based spray on them before Tuesday’s possible rain arrives. And with three nights of 18-19°C minimums ahead, slugs and snails will be active after dark. Put out iron-based bait now, before the soil gets wet and they really get going. Wet weather makes both problems significantly worse, so get ahead of it this weekend.
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