Right, June. The month where Dayboro finally feels like winter. Cold starts, that low sun that never quite gets over the hill behind Lyndhurst before lunch, and the first proper frost on the flats if we get a clear still night. I have pulled the long range numbers from the Dayboro Model, crossed them against what BOM is saying, and dug back through what our weather station has actually recorded for every June since 2008. So this is not guesswork. Weather is the important bit so I lead with that. The rest, the markets, the food prices, the garden, comes after.

The weather, which is the part that matters

The short version: cooler than average, rain a touch below the long run average, and frost on the table for the cold clear nights. That is what the Dayboro Model puts out for June 2026, and it lines up with how a normal Dayboro June behaves.

So nothing dramatic on paper. But June is the month where the average hides the truth. The cold does not arrive evenly. You get a run of mild grey days sitting around 17°C, then a clear southerly clears the sky out and the next morning the gauge on my fence reads 4°C and the windscreen is iced. That swing is the whole story of a Dayboro winter. The valley floor down near the causeway sits a few degrees colder than the houses up the slope, cold air rolls downhill and pools, so frost is a paddock by paddock thing here, not a town wide thing.

The model has the coldest mornings around 9 to 10°C as a monthly average, but do not let that fool you. Average lows and actual lows are two different animals. On the still nights after a front the low spots will drop well below that, and a frost in the open is very likely by mid June. If you garden on the flat, this is your warning to start covering the tender stuff.

What our station has logged: the June record since 2008

This is where it gets interesting, adn it is the bit you will not get from a generic BOM regional outlook. Our weather station up on Lyndhurst Hill has been logging every day since 2008. So when I say "a normal June", I can actually show you what normal means here, not somewhere out near Brisbane airport.

Over the good full years on record, a Dayboro June averages about 101 mm of rain, a mean daytime high of 21.6°C and a mean overnight low of 9.2°C. The coldest single morning we have ever logged in June was 1.5°C, back in June 2009, with 2014 and last year both nearly as cold at 1.7°C. So when people tell you "it does not really get cold up here", the record says otherwise.

June rain is the wildest number we track

Here is the thing about Dayboro June rain: the average of 101 mm is almost a lie, because we hardly ever actually get 101 mm. We get either a soaking or near nothing, and the average sits in a gap where few years land. Look at the spread.

And those bars do not even show the extremes. June 2016 dumped 279 mm on us, nearly three times the average in one month. June 2022 gave us 2.3 mm, basically a dry month with a single damp afternoon. Same month, same place, a hundred times the difference depending on the year. That is why I never tell anyone "expect about 100 mm". I tell them: it will either be wet or it will be dry, and the long range lean this year is towards the drier half.

The cold is the steady part

Temperature is the reliable bit. Unlike the rain, June temps barely move year to year. Look at the last four full years side by side.

Four years, and the average high never strays far from 22°C while the average low parks itself around 8°C. The number that matters for the garden is that bottom band: the coldest morning. Every single year there is at least one morning down near 2°C, adn 2025 hit 1.7°C. Out on the flats, away from the station which sits up on the hill, that means a white frost. The lesson since I have been watching this is simple. Do not plan around the average low. Plan around the cold snap, because it always turns up.

What about all this El Nino talk?

You have probably seen it everywhere. There is a lot of noise about a possible El Nino building later in the year, some of it fair and some of it the usual end of the world stuff that does the rounds on the internet. Here is where it actually sits. On this moment the Pacific is neutral. BOM had the key index at +0.52°C for the week to 10 May 2026, which is still inside the neutral band. The bigger agencies overseas think an El Nino is likely to build through winter and firm up later in the year [NOAA CPC, 2026; BOM, 2026].

What that means for us in June is: not much yet. An El Nino, if it comes, usually pushes Dayboro towards drier and warmer over spring and into next summer, not in the depth of winter. And it is worth looking back at the record here. Our two driest recent Junes, 2022 at 2 mm and 2019, both sat in or near drier Pacific patterns, while the soaking June of 2016 came in a wetter set up. The pattern is real but it is loose, not a switch. BOM say it themselves, a strong signal out in the Pacific does not automatically mean strong effects on our weather, because it is just one of several things pulling the strings [BOM, 2026]. So I am watching it, but I am not losing sleep over June because of it. The thing to watch is the back half of the year.

If you want the deep version of the El Nino story, the history and the science, I did a full write up on that already over on the site. This post is about June on the ground.

Events: get out of the house, it is the Arts Trail month

June is a good month for getting out, even with the cold, because the big one is on. The Samford and Hinterland Arts Trail runs every weekend in June, Saturdays and Sundays, 10am to 3pm [Creative Samford, 2026]. It is the largest art event in the Moreton Bay region and it stretches right across our patch, from Samford through Dayboro, Cashmere and Clear Mountain. Seventy two artists open up their studios this year. You drive around wiht the map, knock on doors that are normally shut, and have a sticky beak at how people actually make their work.

Trail stop worth the drive

Running Duck Studio, King Scrub

This one is right on our doorstep. Running Duck Studio is open for the Trail at 12 Lyndhurst Road, King Scrub, just minutes out of Dayboro. Black and white animal drawings, wildlife and horse work, prints, books and commissions, all made in the studio out there in the green. If you do one stop on the Trail, make it the local one. Have a yarn, see the work, and you will not be sorry you went up the hill for it.

Visit Running Duck Studio →

A tip from someone who has done the Trail a few times: pick a fine day. Cold is fine, the studios are warm and the drive through the hills in winter light is half the pleasure, but a wet weekend turns the dirt driveways into a slog and takes the shine off it. Watch the forecast across the four weekends and aim for a clear Saturday.

The other regular that is worth your Sunday: the Dayboro Markets, on the first Sunday of the month, so that is Sunday 7 June, 7am to 11:30am, on the corner of William and Heathwood Streets opposite the IGA and the bakery. Soaps, woodwork, pottery, fresh honey, the usual good local stuff. Get there early, the best things go before nine, and dress for it because at 7am in June the green is still in shade and cold.

And looking just past June, mark the calendar now: the Dayboro Show is back on Saturday 4 and Sunday 5 July. Not a June event, but close enough that you want the date in your head before it sneaks up.

And while we are on local things, our own Dayboro cows Bruce and Wally have made it onto a mug. A cold winter morning is exactly the right time for a hot coffee in a cow mug, so if you want one for yourself or for a present, you can grab the two happy Dayboro cows mug over at Moo Mugs. Printed to order and posted out, a nice little bit of Dayboro for the kitchen.

Food prices: a quick honest note, not a sermon

I track the supermarket veg prices because it feeds into what is worth growing yourself. I am not here to scare anyone, prices go up and down with the seasons and that is normal. But a couple of things stood out this month, and they are good news if you eat with the season.

Winter veg is doing what winter veg does, getting cheaper as the southern growing regions hit their stride. Broccoli is down about 48% on the month, and leeks are down around 29% [Dayboro veg price tracker, 2026]. So a winter soup is about the cheapest good feed going right now. Going the other way, the summer stuff is dear out of season, limes, cucumber, avocado and lettuce are all up, which is exactly what you would expect in June. Eat the cheap winter things, leave the dear summer things until summer. That is the whole trick.

If you like keeping an eye on this yourself, the live prices and the planting calendar over on Garden Buddy are the easiest way to see what is cheap and what is in season across the four big supermarkets, week to week.

The garden: cold is your friend and your enemy this month

June is a working month in the garden if you grow your own. And now you have seen the record, you know why frost protection is not optional here. Since the station went in, every June has thrown at least one morning near 2°C. Here is what I would be on with.

• Cover the tender stuff on frost nights. If the sky goes clear and the wind drops after a southerly, that is a frost setup. Old sheets, frost cloth, even a cardboard box over the seedlings. Uncover in the morning so they breathe. The flats and the low corner near the creek go first, the slope holds out longer.
• Plant the cool season winners now. Broad beans, peas, garlic, onions, brassicas, spinach, silverbeet, lettuce. These actually like the cold and the lower pest pressure. Garlic in particular wants to go in around now, pointy end up.
• Go easy on the water. Cold soil and short days mean plants drink far less. Overwatering in winter rots more than it grows. Let the top of the soil dry between drinks, and water in the morning not the evening so the bed is not sitting wet and cold overnight.
• Watch the tanks if it is a dry one. In a dry June like 2022 the tanks stop topping up and you are drawing down with no return. If the forecast holds dry, go easy on the garden water early so you are not caught short in spring.
• Feed the soil, not just the plant. A good mulch and some compost now sets you up for spring. Worth doing while there is little else screaming for attention.
• Frost is not all bad. A light frost sweetens the brassicas and the parsnips. So do not curse it completely, eventually it does some of your cooking for you.

If you want the day by day detail, when to sow, when the moon is right for it if that is your thing, and what suits our warm temperate zone, I keep that running on the site and over on Garden Buddy too.

The bottom line for June

Cold mornings every week, mild grey days, a frost or two on the flats that the record says is near certain, and rain leaning to the drier half so keep half an eye on the tanks. The El Nino noise is for later in the year, not this month, so park it. Get to the Arts Trail on a clear weekend, swing by Running Duck Studio up at King Scrub, hit the markets on the 7th, eat the cheap broccoli, and get your garlic in the ground. That is a good June. I reckon that is a month well spent.

See you out there. Mind the frost on the causeway road early, it gets slick.

Related reading on Dayboro.au

Sources: Dayboro weather station archive (2008 to 2025), June daily records for rainfall and temperature. Bureau of Meteorology (2026), ENSO Outlook and seasonal climate outlooks, bom.gov.au. NOAA Climate Prediction Center (2026), ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Creative Samford (2026), Samford and Hinterland Arts Trail, creativesamford.com. Dayboro vegetable price tracker (2026), supermarket price data to 20 May 2026. Long range weather from the Dayboro Model (Inigo Jones method), June 2026 run.

Long range forecasts are a guide, not a guarantee. They tell you the lean of the month, not the exact day. The history shown is from our own station and is the best local record there is, but past Junes do not lock in this June. Always check the live forecast before you make a call on the weather.