Solar Cycle 25 Predictions: Expect Extreme Solar Flares by 2027
It’s not every day you hear space scientists predicting monster solar flares heading our way — but that’s exactly what’s happening with Solar Cycle 25. I came across a paper by Baolin Tan, which sparked my interest. It is 1 am, 29/04/2025, when I write this, so bear with me as I try to explain what this might mean.
After a sleepy Cycle 24, the Sun is starting to wake up big time. And according to brand new research published in The Astrophysical Journal Letters, there’s a good chance we’re in for extremely strong solar flares — the kind that can mess with satellites, power grids, and even your local weather.
In this post, I’ll walk you through what’s happening, why it matters, and how all of it ties into the big picture of climate and solar cycles — including the work of the brilliant Valentina Zharkova and her solar dynamo models, some think she is a “fake”, I highly respect her and read many of her papers.
Grab a cuppa and settle in — this is going to be interesting! I am on my 3rd already, so why not grab a My Moo Mug.
What Is Solar Cycle 25, Anyway?
First up — what’s a solar cycle?
The Sun goes through natural cycles of activity, each lasting about 11 years. Some cycles are pretty calm, others are wild and full of fireworks (literally — solar flares are enormous explosions on the Sun’s surface).
We number these cycles. Solar Cycle 24 (which ran from about 2008 to 2019) was a weak one. Now, we’re well into Solar Cycle 25, which officially kicked off in August 2019.
And guess what? It’s looking much stronger than many experts initially thought. It is always a bit tricky to predict these things, and as you can see in the image above it is already higher than the highest of Solar Cycle 24. I thought Cycle 25 would be way weaker than Solar Cycle 24. I was wrong about that.
Why Should We Care About Solar Flares?
Solar flares are sudden bursts of radiation and magnetic energy from the Sun. They can:
Knock out GPS and communications satellites
Disrupt power grids (like what happened in Quebec in 1989)
Create beautiful but dangerous auroras
Even influences weather patterns on Earth
The most powerful flares are ranked as X-class. When they become extremely large (X10 and beyond), we refer to them as powerful flares (ES-flares).
According to the team led by Baolin Tan in The Astrophysical Journal Letters, Solar Cycle 25 could produce up to 3 powerful flares, likely starting from spring 2027 onward.
How Scientists Predict Solar Flares
Solar weather forecasting isn’t like predicting next weekend’s footy scores. It’s complicated.
Tan and his colleagues took a clever approach:
They studied sunspot numbers over the last four solar cycles, spanning from 1975 to the present.
They found two key numbers that seem to predict strong flares:
Vm: The average sunspot number during the quiet period before a cycle starts
Vd: The amount of “wobble” or variability in those sunspot numbers during that quiet time
Their data show that when Vm and Vd are higher, the next cycle is stronger, and it produces more monster flares.
Guess what the Vm and Vd were before Solar Cycle 25?
Higher than they were before Cycle 24.
Translation: This cycle will be stronger, and the biggest flares are likely coming around 2027.
The “Low Latitude Active Zone” — The Sun’s Secret Hotspot
Here’s where it gets juicy.
Tan’s research suggests that most monster flares originate from an area on the Sun known as the Low Latitude Active Zone (LAZ). This is a kind of magnetic “hot zone” near the solar equator.
When new sunspots (which start high up on the Sun’s surface and migrate down over the cycle) cross paths with this LAZ, kaboom — that’s when the biggest flares happen.
This explains why the worst flares tend to hit later in the solar cycle, when sunspots have moved closer to the equator.
Cycle 25 fits this pattern perfectly. By 2027–2028, sunspots will be hovering right over the LAZ, setting the stage for potential whoppers.
A Bit of Solar History: Big Flares from the Past
Carrington Event (1859): A colossal flare that fried telegraph wires across the globe.
Halloween Storms (2003): X45 flares that knocked out satellites and caused aviation chaos.
Tan’s team points out that even the biggest flares we’ve recorded aren’t technically “superflares” (which are even bigger again). But they’re big enough to cause massive trouble here on Earth.
They predict that in Solar Cycle 25, we could see 1 to 3 ES-flares — enough to be a real problem if we’re not ready.
How Does This Tie into Climate?
Here’s where it gets really fascinating.
While many mainstream scientists focus almost exclusively on carbon dioxide (CO₂) as the primary cause of climate change, others, such as Professor Valentina Zharkova, point to the Sun’s natural cycles as a significant contributor.
Zharkova’s model of the solar dynamo (how the Sun’s magnetic field cycles) predicts periods of warming and cooling on Earth based on solar activity.
In her research:
Strong solar cycles correlate with warmer periods.
Weak cycles (like the Maunder Minimum in the 1600s) line up with cooler “Little Ice Ages.”
If Solar Cycle 25 proves to be strong, with significant flare activity, it could indicate that we’re entering a naturally warmer phase, driven by the Sun rather than human activities. I figured I’d throw that in there, so when folks get emotional about increased temperatures, it’s now documented. That said, I keep saying it will get colder… what is up with that?
If we zoom out over the last 770,000 years of climate history (yep, I’ve got those graphs handy), you see warming and cooling trends happening long before we ever built a smokestack.
What Should We Expect in 2027 and Beyond?
If Tan’s predictions hold, here’s the rough timeline:
Now–2026: The Sun remains active, but nothing too crazy (apart from the occasional X-class flare).
Spring 2027: First extremely strong flare expected.
Late 2027–2028: More ES-flares possible as sunspots cross the LAZ.
Post-2028: Solar Cycle 25 winds down — but the effects of big flares (like satellite damage or long-term climate impacts) could linger.
This matches Valentina Zharkova’s model, which predicts ongoing fluctuations in solar output over the next decades.
Are We Entering a Cooling Period? (Short Answer: YES, but It’s Complex)
1. Solar Cycles and Cooling
Solar output is not constant. It waxes and wanes on ~11-year sunspot cycles and longer ~200-year grand solar cycles.
Solar Cycle 24 (2008–2019) was one of the weakest in over 100 years.
Solar Cycle 25 (2019–~2030) started stronger than 24, but still lower compared to big cycles like 19 and 21.
Scientists, such as Zharkova, argue that the Sun is entering a period of reduced magnetic activity, known as a “Grand Solar Minimum.”
Historically, Grand Minima correlate with cooling periods (e.g., the Maunder Minimum of 1645–1715, which triggered the “Little Ice Age” famines, rivers freezing, crop failures across Europe).
Source: Zharkova et al., 2015
2. Short-Term Warming from Solar Cycle 25’s Mid-Activity
Currently, Solar Cycle 25’s surge (peaking between 2025 and 2027) is causing temporary solar heating effects — i.e., we’re seeing spikes of energy reaching Earth.
But after 2028–2030, if Cycle 26 continues the weakening trend, the Sun’s energy will likely drop off sharply.
This means cooler global averages, but it won’t be instant — oceans and atmosphere lag behind solar changes by 5–15 years.
3. Other Factors Influencing Cooling
Besides just sunspot numbers:
Cosmic rays (which increase when solar activity is low) seed clouds, leading to more clouds, which in turn reflect more sunlight, resulting in cooling.
Jet stream weakening (linked to lower solar magnetic fields) = more cold air outbreaks (polar vortexes moving south).
This matches your observations:
Winters are starting earlier or being harsher.
Unseasonal cold snaps (like late frosts) even during warmer trends.
4. Mainstream Media Confusion
Climate science today is hyper-focused on anthropogenic (man-made) CO₂ warming.
However, Earth’s temperature is a complex blend of natural solar cycles, orbital changes, volcanic activity, cloud cover, cosmic rays, and CO₂ and Methane levels.
What’s happening now is that both warming from CO₂ and cooling forces from a weakening Sun are fighting each other.
Most public models underestimate the solar contribution, because it’s harder to model compared to CO₂’s “linear” effect.
Why Dayboro Residents Should Care
Now, you might be thinking — “I’m just trying to get my garden sorted or plan a fishing trip — why should I care about solar flares?”
Here’s why:
Space weather impacts Earth weather: Changes in solar radiation can tweak atmospheric circulation patterns.
Power grid vulnerabilities: Big flares can fry transformers. If you rely on local power (and who doesn’t?), that’s a concern.
GPS and communication disruptions: Handy to know if you’re using GPS for farming, hiking, or just getting around.
It’s not about panic — it’s about being aware and planning smart. It is one of the reasons why I been saying “Grow your own veggies“.
Hypothetical Weather Forecast for Dayboro (2025–2029) Based on Solar and Planetary Cycles
Using the Inigo Jones and Gann long-term forecasting methods, along with recent solar and planetary data, the period from 2025 to 2029 for Dayboro is shaping up like this.
2025–2026: Warmer and Wetter Than Normal
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Why: We are nearing the first peak of Solar Cycle 25 with increasing sunspot numbers.
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Planetary: Major inner planet alignments (Venus, Mars, Mercury) and several low-latitude solar flares are expected.
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Forecast for Dayboro:
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Temperatures: 0.5°C to 1°C warmer than the long-term average. Expect hotter summers.
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Rainfall: Slightly above normal, particularly November to March.
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Risk: Higher chance of heavy thunderstorms and flash flooding (especially January–March 2026).
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2027–2028: Colder, Drier, and Stormier
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Why: According to Tan et al. 2025, the Sun is predicted to unleash powerful solar flares during this time. Historically, strong solar flare years have been correlated with jet stream disruptions, leading to cooler and stormier conditions.
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Planetary: Significant solar-lunar disturbances; close planetary alignments magnify magnetic field changes.
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Forecast for Dayboro:
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Temperatures: 1°C cooler than usual in winter; slightly cooler summer highs.
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Rainfall: Below average in winter and spring. Dry winters will be common.
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Storms:
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Spring/Summer (late 2027 into early 2028): Increased violent thunderstorms and potential late-season cyclonic activity.
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Possibility of major East Coast low events.
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2028–2029: Shifts Toward Normal, But Watch For Extremes
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Why: Solar Cycle 25 is winding down, but the magnetic instability from big flares lingers into early 2029.
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Planetary: Saturn–Uranus minor opposition (early 2029) — traditional signal of climatic instability.
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Forecast for Dayboro:
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Temperatures: Bouncing back closer to normal. Average around 19.5°C.
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Rainfall:
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Early 2028 is expected to be drier than normal.
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Late 2028–early 2029: Rainfall closer to or slightly above normal.
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Storms: Less frequent but more severe when they happen.
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Climate Risks to Watch
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Heatwaves:
The 2025–2026 period is likely to see major heatwave events — prepare your gardens, livestock, and irrigation systems early. -
Fire Season:
Spring 2027 and Spring 2028 — dangerous bushfire potential, especially following dry winters. -
Flooding Risk:
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Flash flood risk in early 2026.
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East Coast Lows in late 2027/early 2028 could bring damaging rainfall events.
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Questions and Answers.
What is happening right now with cycle 25?
Solar Cycle 25 (2019–~2030) started stronger than expected, but still much weaker than Solar Cycles 19 or 21 (the big ones from the 1950s–1980s).
Based on sunspot trends and solar physics models (including Zharkova’s solar dynamo model), Solar Cycle 26 (starts ~2030) is expected to be weaker than Cycle 25.
This is why serious researchers talk about a “Modern Grand Solar Minimum” potentially setting in around 2030–2050.
What is predicted for cycle 26?
Weak sunspot activity forecasted for Cycle 26:
Possibly matching levels seen during the Dalton Minimum (1790–1830) — a cold period with crop failures and widespread famines in Europe.
Key signatures of a weak Cycle 26:
Less magnetic shielding → More cosmic ray penetration.
More cloud cover (especially low clouds) → Global dimming.
Cooler ocean surface temperatures (especially Atlantic and Pacific).
What are the likely climate impacts from a weaker solar cycle 26?
| Impact | What it Means |
|---|---|
| Colder Winters | Especially in Europe, North America, Australia. Jet stream destabilization brings cold outbreaks. |
| Shorter Growing Seasons | Earlier frosts and delayed spring thaws — agriculture is hit. |
| Increased Extreme Weather | More sudden floods, hail events, and flash freezes. |
| Regional Cooling | Southern Hemisphere (including Australia) especially sensitive due to oceanic weather patterns. |
| Potential Food Price Shocks | Cooler growing conditions could reduce crop yields. |
What are the specific risks for Australia
| Year | Solar/Climate Conditions | Risk Level (Australia) | Likely Weather Events |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Solar Cycle 25 near peak, strong solar disturbances | Medium | Hotter than average; scattered thunderstorms; early signs of increased moisture |
| 2026 | Solar activity declining; onset of increased cosmic rays | Medium to High | Wetter than normal summer; increased risk of east coast lows and localized flash flooding |
| 2027 | Post-solar peak instability; stronger La Niña signals | High | Major rain events; high flood risk for eastern Australia, especially SE QLD and NSW |
| 2028 | Solar Cycle 26 begins weakly; natural cooling trend strengthens | Very High | Extreme rainfall patterns; multiple flood events possible; cooler average temperatures |
| 2029 | Weak solar output continues; cooling phase consolidates | Medium | Wetter than normal conditions; occasional intense storm systems; cooler summers |
| 2030–2035 | Solar minimum between Cycle 25/26; long-term cooling intensifies | High | Cooler average temperatures across Australia; shorter growing seasons; flood events continue but less extreme than 2027–28 |
