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In April the climate science community quietly retired its most cited worst case scenario. This month the final CMIP7 numbers landed and they cut the projections again. We pulled the data apart and found something odd on the way through: the CO2 went down, and the projected warming went up.
A claim by claim verification of the July 2026 super El Nino headlines against raw NOAA CPC weekly data, the Bureau of Meteorology SOI archive, multi model forecasts and a twenty year Dayboro rain gauge record. The packaging is hype. The ocean is not.
Dayboro recorded 95.9 mm in June 2026, the wettest June in ten years, despite an established El Niño. Days ran warm, nights stayed mild, and not a single frost. Here is how it compares with every June since 2008.
The Dayboro Show is on 4–5 July 2026 at the Showgrounds. Our Dayboro Model and the Bureau both call sunny and dry, tops near 24°C with cold foggy starts. Pack a jacket for the morning, sunscreen for the middle.
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