The Headline This Week
Split week. Monday through Wednesday are clear and warm, pushing into the low 30s. Then a system moves in. By Friday the cloud thickens, rain is likely, and it stays that way through the weekend. If you’ve got outdoor jobs, do them early in the week.
Day-by-Day Outlook
| Day | Date | Min | Max | Rain Chance | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 02 Mar | 17°C | 30°C | 0% | Sunny, partly cloudy |
| Tuesday | 03 Mar | 19°C | 31°C | 0% | Sunny |
| Wednesday | 04 Mar | 19°C | 30°C | 0% | Sunny, partly cloudy |
| Thursday | 05 Mar | 21°C | 31°C | 40% | Cloud building through the morning, slight rain chance |
| Friday | 06 Mar | 20°C | 23°C | 80% | Dense overcast, rain likely |
| Saturday | 07 Mar | 20°C | 23°C | 80% | Dense overcast, rain likely |
| Sunday | 08 Mar | 20°C | 23°C | 90% | Dense overcast, rain very likely |
Forecast generated by the Dayboro Model. Conditions in the D’Aguilar Range foothills can differ significantly from the coast.
How Last Week’s Forecasts Held Up
The Dayboro Model finished the last 30 days with a composite accuracy of 70.9%, ahead of BOM at 66.7%. Temperature accuracy was strong — 97.2% for the Dayboro Model against 95.7% for BOM. In plain terms, the local model is running well. Rain timing remains the harder call for any forecast system, and that’s reflected in the composite scores.
What’s Driving the Weather
The early part of the week is straightforward — a high sitting to the southeast is keeping things settled across SE Queensland. Brisbane and the coast are looking at very little rain through the week, with the regional outlook showing just 7% average rain probability for the southeast corner.
Dayboro tells a different story from late Thursday. A trough is expected to push east from inland Queensland, and where it interacts with the range, we tend to pick up more rain than the coast does. The D’Aguilar foothills are good at squeezing moisture out of systems that slide overhead. Friday through Sunday look genuinely wet — dense cloud, likely persistent rain, and temperatures dropping back to the low 20s. Up in the tropics, Darwin and the Top End are already copping heavy monsoonal falls. This week’s system is part of that broader late-season pattern pushing south.
Garden and Outdoor Tip
The wet weekend ahead creates ideal conditions for slugs and snails — they’re already flagged as high risk right now. Early blight and late blight on tomatoes and potatoes are also active threats. Get any slug bait down before Friday, and if your tomatoes are running, make sure there’s good airflow and no mulch sitting right against the stems. Wet foliage overnight is all it takes for blight to take hold. Do your spraying Wednesday at the latest — once the rain arrives, you’ll be wasting your time.
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