The week kicks off grey and ends bright. Mornings stay cool for late autumn, days climb back into the mid-twenties by Wednesday. No big rain on the radar — just a touch of drizzle risk Monday and Tuesday before things clear up properly.
I’ve been tracking the Dayboro Model against BOM for the last 30 days. The Dayboro Model came in at 85.8% composite accuracy this month, BOM sat at 78.3%. On temperatures alone the Dayboro Model nailed 95.6% versus BOM’s 93.2%. Worth keeping in mind when you read what follows — these numbers aren’t perfect, but they’re better than the alternative.
The Week Ahead
| Day | Date | Min | Max | Rain Chance | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 27 Apr | 15°C | 22°C | 30% | Cloudy with a slight chance of rain |
| Tuesday | 28 Apr | 14°C | 24°C | 30% | Partly to mostly cloudy in the morning, slight chance of rain |
| Wednesday | 29 Apr | 15°C | 26°C | 0% | Partly cloudy in the morning, then sunny |
Members get the full Thursday-to-Sunday breakdown below, plus the weekend rain timing.
Last Week’s Report Card
Last week I called for a damp start tapering to a dry finish. That played out roughly as expected. The temperature forecasts held tight — within a degree on most days. Rain timing was the trickier one. Wednesday’s shower came through a few hours later than the model showed, which is the usual story with isolated rain events. Models pick the day, the hour drifts.
The Bigger Picture
Eastern Australia is splitting into its classic autumn pattern this week. Up in the Wet Tropics, Cairns is still pulling 55% rain probability — the wet season’s tail is hanging on. Townsville sits drier at 42% but warmer. Down here in SE QLD we’re in the favoured zone, with high pressure ridges drifting east and dry westerly drift behind them. That’s what gives us the clear nights and rapid cooling.
Western NSW is bone dry. Broken Hill, Dubbo and Bourke are barely 6% rain probability all week, and the Red Centre is sitting on zero. That’s the autumn signature — continental high dominating the inland, moisture squeezed up to the tropics. For the D’Aguilar foothills it means our textbook late-April weather. Cool mornings hugging the valley floor, warm afternoons, and barely a cloud by Wednesday. I reckon Mt Mee will fog up nicely a couple of mornings.
Garden and Outdoor Tip
The pest alert board is lighting up: snails, slugs, Late Blight and Downy Mildew. All four love what we’ve just had — moisture sitting around overnight, mild days. With the dry stretch coming Wednesday, this is your window:
- Water deeply once on Tuesday afternoon, then let beds dry through Wednesday.
- Lay beer traps for slugs Monday night while the ground is still damp. They’ll be active.
- Check tomato and potato leaves for Late Blight spotting — strip affected leaves and bin them, don’t compost.
- Mulch lighter, not heavier, on this moment of the year. Heavy mulch traps the overnight moisture that feeds the mildew.
If you’ve been holding off on the heater, Wednesday morning is when you’ll be tempted. A min of 15 sounds mild, but radiation cooling under a clear sky drops the felt temperature into single digits across the open paddocks.
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