Is the fire danger in Dayboro going to be worse this year?

Lyndhurst Hill station · 20 years of data · 14 April 2026

What 2026 looks like so far (Jan to 14 April)

Rainfall at the Lyndhurst Hill station for 1 January to 14 April 2026: 513.6 mm. The 20-year mean for the same window is 719.1 mm. So we're running 28.6% below average.

Out of the 17 years where I have a complete January-to-mid-April record, 2026 ranks 11th wettest — meaning 10 years were wetter, 6 were drier. It's not a record-dry start. But it's noticeably drier than the last couple of years (2025 gave us 1128 mm in the same window, 2024 was 912 mm).

The last 30 days in particular have been dry — 31.6 mm only. The 7-day forecast shows zero rain, and daily maxes climbing into the high 20s and low 30s through next week. That's classic autumn "high pressure sits over the east coast and does nothing for three weeks" weather. It's how our dry season usually starts.

The part most people miss: fuel load

Whether a year is a bad fire year isn't just about how dry it is right now. It's about how much stuff there is to burn, and whether it's dried out yet.

Two wet years = paddocks that grew heavy. One dry season after two wet ones = all that grass now curing in the sun. That's the setup fire ecologists describe as "fuel-driven" conditions: the fire risk isn't about forest drought, it's about grassland ready to carry a spark.

For context, the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) at Lyndhurst Hill is sitting at 37 on a 0-200 scale. Low. The soil profile isn't dry yet. Soil moisture at 10cm depth has been reading an average of 42 cb (centibars) over the last week — adequate, not stressed. So the forest floor isn't bone-dry. But the grass on top is a different story.

That's why this needs to be read as a grass-fire year, not a forest-fire year. It's not the same risk profile as 2019.

What the big-picture climate drivers say

Two numbers locals can check for themselves:

1. ENSO (El Niño / La Niña)

The 2025-26 La Niña has ended. We're in ENSO-neutral right now (Niño 3.4 at −0.42 °C as of late March, per BoM). BoM's model ensemble points to warming through winter, possibly crossing into El Niño by late winter 2026. El Niño in spring/early summer historically means drier than average for eastern Australia.

2. BoM May–July 2026 rainfall outlook

For much of eastern Australia including southeast Queensland, the Bureau's three-month outlook gives a 60% to over 80% chance of below-average rainfall. That's a confident signal compared to a lot of past outlooks where the probability sat around 50-60%.

Put the two together: the landscape is drying out, and the official outlook says the next three months are more likely to be drier than wetter.

What the national outlook says specifically about QLD

This is the part where honesty matters. The AFAC Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Autumn 2026 — that's the national fire authority body — flagged heightened fire risk for parts of NSW, Victoria, southeast South Australia and southern WA. Queensland, and specifically the southeast, was not flagged as above-normal risk in the autumn outlook.

So the question "is it going to be catastrophic this year" has a pretty clear answer: no one who looks at this professionally is predicting that for our patch. Dayboro is classed as normal fire potential for autumn 2026.

But "normal" in this country still includes grass fires, paddock fires, and the odd nasty wind day. Normal doesn't mean nothing.

What happened on 12 April that's worth knowing about

Just a data point from my own station. On Sunday 12 April at 1:30pm, Lyndhurst Hill recorded 32.2 °C with humidity dropping to 30% and light north-westerly winds. Those are textbook grass-fire ignition conditions. If the wind had been 25 km/h instead of 6 km/h, that afternoon would have been genuinely risky in a cured paddock.

It wasn't a dangerous day in practice — winds stayed light. But it's a reminder that the inputs are already lining up. Hot, low humidity, dry grass. We just don't have strong winds with it yet.

What actually matters now (before the dry season proper)

Fire preparation works best when it's done six weeks before you need it, not the weekend before. Here's the realistic prep hierarchy for a Dayboro property, from "whole-of-acreage" to "house-and-yard".

A practical checklist if you're on acreage

This isn't a panic list. These are the things that, if done by end of May, genuinely reduce your risk:

1. Slash the grass within 30–50 metres of any dwelling or shed. Short grass doesn't carry fire well. This is the single biggest lever.
2. Clear leaf litter from gutters and roof valleys. Gutter fires from embers cause more house losses than direct flame-fronts.
3. Move firewood stacks away from the house — 10 metres minimum, ideally more.
4. Clear flammable vegetation away from gas bottles and under decks.
5. Walk your fence line and note where a firebreak would go if you ever needed one. Knowing is most of the work.
6. Check your bushfire survival plan — Queensland Fire Department has a template. If you don't have one, write one this month.
7. Agree with your household who does what if a warning comes through. Roles, vehicles, where you go. Five minutes of conversation on a Sunday afternoon, no drama.

None of this is new advice. The reason I'm writing it down this year rather than last year is the fuel-load-plus-dry-outlook combination. Last year the ground was so wet you couldn't have lit a paddock if you tried. This year the grass has grown tall, is drying out, and the outlook says the next three months will keep drying.

What I'd watch over the next three months

A few local signals that tell you whether things are shifting from "normal" toward "worth paying attention":

• KBDI above 80. At that point the soil profile is genuinely drought-stressed and even forest fuels start to become problematic. Right now we're at 37. I'll post if it climbs.
• A run of afternoons with humidity under 25% and winds over 25 km/h. Those are the days that matter. One of them with a spark in cured grass goes fast.
• BoM updates to the outlook. The May–July outlook is already pointing drier. If the August–October outlook confirms, that's a signal the back end of the dry season (when fires actually happen here) will be elevated.

I'll keep the fire-weather page on dayboro.au updated with the station's live FFDI and KBDI values. Members get the full 14-day trend and my interpretation of it. For people who want the raw numbers, the weather data is public.

Bottom line