The week ahead in Dayboro
Short version: we start grey and damp, then the sky opens up. Monday carries the leftover moisture, but by Tuesday and Wednesday the Dayboro Model has us dry and sunny, with mornings starting cloudy and burning off. Right now it’s 17.4°C outside and bone dry, no rain in the gauge today.
The catch is the back half of the week. The day-by-day below only covers Monday to Wednesday, and on those days the model is confident about clearing. But the broader regional outlook for the whole week puts Dayboro at around 60% chance of rain with roughly 25mm expected. So enjoy the sun midweek. There’s a fair chance the wet returns after Wednesday. I’ll keep an eye on it.
Day-by-day outlook
| Day | Date | Min | Max | Rain Chance | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 25 May | 19°C | 23°C | 50% | Cloudy morning, showers possible |
| Tuesday | 26 May | 17°C | 23°C | 0% | Cloudy clearing to sunny |
| Wednesday | 27 May | 16°C | 26°C | 0% | Cloudy start, then sunny and mild |
How last week’s forecasts held up
Time for the honest scorecard. Over the last 30 days, BOM’s composite accuracy came in at 77.1%, and their temperature accuracy was a strong 95.3%. Credit where it’s due. The temps were nearly spot on.
I’d love to give you the Dayboro Model’s matching numbers, but I’ll be straight with you: the composite and temperature accuracy figures for our own model came back blank this period. Rather than make something up, I’ll leave it blank and chase down why the number didn’t record. When it’s back, you’ll see it here next to BOM’s, same as always. No point pretending I have a figure I don’t.
The bigger picture across the southeast
Dayboro doesn’t sit in isolation. Across the southeast corner (Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast) the week is looking cool and damp, averaging around 20.7°C maximum with better than even odds of rain (about 53%) and roughly 24mm expected. We’re tracking right alongside them: 60% rain chance, 25mm, max temps near 20.6°C for the week as a whole. That’s a touch cooler than the day-by-day above, which tells you the late-week change is dragging the average down.
Head north and it’s a different world. The Wet Tropics around Cairns and the Dry Tropics near Townsville are warm and largely settled, mid-20s, low rain odds. The further south and inland you go in our patch, the more this cool, moisture-fed pattern takes hold. It’s textbook late-autumn SE Queensland: warm days when the sun’s out, cold clear nights, and bands of moisture rolling through on the southeasterly feed. Those 16°C and 17°C overnight minimums midweek are the giveaway. Clear skies let the heat escape.
Garden tip for the week
With damp conditions bookending the week, the fungal pests are loving life. Right now the high-risk list is snails and slugs, late blight, and downy mildew. The dry sunny window on Tuesday and Wednesday is your chance to get on top of it. Hold off on overhead watering, let the soil breathe and the foliage dry out. Pick a dry morning to clear any rotting leaf litter where slugs hide, and give susceptible plants like tomatoes and cucurbits some airflow by thinning crowded growth. Downy mildew and late blight both thrive on wet leaves, so watering at the base, not the top, makes a real difference this week.
Get your wet-weather jobs done midweek while it’s dry, because the back end of the week may not give you the chance.
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