The Impact of Ocean Temperatures and Cyclone Activity on Dayboro, Queensland
Our town might feel like it’s a world away from the coast, but the weather systems that affect Queensland, particularly tropical cyclones, have far-reaching effects. With predictions for the 2024–25 cyclone season now available from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), and new studies shedding light on long-term trends, it’s essential to understand how changing ocean temperatures could impact our region.
Warming Oceans and Cyclone Intensity
Ocean temperatures play a critical role in fueling cyclones. According to the BOM and global studies, warmer sea surface temperatures can lead to stronger, more intense cyclones, even if the overall number of cyclones may not increase. The latest research suggests that while we might not see more cyclones overall, the ones that do form could pack a stronger punch.
For Dayboro residents, it might seem like cyclones are only a concern for coastal communities, but their effects can ripple inland. Storm surges, heavy rainfall, and winds associated with cyclones can still cause significant disruptions. Given Dayboro’s proximity to the coast, residents should stay informed about broader weather patterns.
BOM’s 2024–25 Cyclone Forecast
The Bureau of Meteorology has forecasted that the 2024–25 cyclone season will see close to average cyclone activity in the Australian region, with around 11 cyclones expected and four likely to make landfall. For Queensland’s East Coast, the forecast predicts around four tropical cyclones, but as always, it’s not the number of cyclones that should concern us but their intensity.
The BOM predicts an increased likelihood of severe cyclones, meaning that while Dayboro might not experience direct hits, the town could still see the effects of these stronger storms. The warmer ocean temperatures near Queensland contribute to this increase in cyclone intensity, which could mean more widespread rainfall and damaging winds even for inland areas like ours.
Findings from Recent Studies
A recent study on global tropical cyclone distribution projects that in the coming decades, the Southern Hemisphere may actually see fewer tropical cyclones overall, but the cyclones that do form will be more intense due to the energy provided by warmer ocean temperatures. This is consistent with what the BOM is predicting for Queensland.
One of the significant findings from this study is the poleward shift of cyclone activity. This means that tropical cyclones may start forming further south than they traditionally have, potentially increasing the impact on the East Coast of Australia. For Dayboro and surrounding areas, this shift could mean more extreme weather patterns as cyclones track closer to home.
What Does This Mean for Dayboro?
For Dayboro, the threat from cyclones might not come in the form of direct hits this year, but the effects of heavy rain, flooding, and strong winds around last week of Feb first week of March and should not be underestimated. It is something I have been saying for a few years now that from … well, now… onwards, we will see more intense flooding. The BOM and recent studies suggest that while we might have fewer cyclones in total, the storms we do see are likely to be stronger and potentially more damaging.
Residents should be aware of the potential for widespread rainfall, particularly as cyclone systems move inland. This can lead to flash flooding, especially in lower-lying areas around Dayboro. Additionally, strong winds can cause damage to properties and local infrastructure, so preparation is key.
Preparing for the 2024–25 Cyclone Season
Even though Dayboro is inland, it’s still crucial to be prepared for the cyclone season. Here are some tips to keep in mind:
- Stay Informed: Keep an eye on the BOM’s cyclone tracking updates, particularly during the peak cyclone season from November to April.
- Flood Awareness: Make sure your property is protected from potential flooding, especially if you live near any water sources that could swell with heavy rainfall.
- Emergency Kit: Have an emergency kit ready with essentials like bottled water, non-perishable food, and first-aid supplies in case of power outages or isolation due to flooding.
Memory Lane:
- Tropical Cyclone Dinah (1967): One of the most impactful cyclones to hit the area, causing widespread damage.
- The 1974 Brisbane Flood: This event, exacerbated by heavy rainfall and cyclonic conditions, led to the flooding of the Brisbane River, significantly affecting areas near North Pine and Moreton Bay.
- Tropical Cyclone Hamish (2009): Although it didn’t make direct landfall, it caused extensive flooding and damage along Queensland’s coast, including impacts on Moreton Bay.
- The 2011 Queensland Floods: Heavy rainfall from tropical cyclones and loitering weather systems caused widespread flooding, severely impacting South East Queensland, including Moreton Bay and the Brisbane River.
- Tropical Cyclone Oma (2019) Brought heavy rainfall and flooding, particularly affecting coastal areas near Moreton Bay.
- 2022 Floods: One of the most recent severe weather events, it brought intense rainfall and flooding across South East Queensland, affecting over 500,000 people.
What will or might the future bring?
I did some long term predictions on that, you can find them here.
