🌧️ Flood Risk Analysis for Dayboro (Oct 2025 – Jan 2026)
Overall flood risk: MODERATE to HIGH. This page turns the seasonal outlook into plain language with simple tables, a month-by-month view, and practical steps for homes, businesses, and farms.
Updated: 06 Oct 2025 (AEST)
What’s driving the wet signal?
La Niña 🌊
La Niña often brings more rain to eastern Australia. With it active, Dayboro usually sees more frequent showers, longer wet spells, and higher chances of storm run-off into creeks.
Seasonal cycles 📈
The Inigo Jones framework points to a 35-year “wet phase” (often called the Bruckner cycle), lined up with other timing signals like a Jupiter opposition. These cycles tilt the odds toward above-average rain.
SAM & solar activity ☀️
A positive SAM in spring/summer and a solar peak both tend to lift storminess over SEQ. That can mean more intense downpours when systems pass through.
Inigo Jones 5-Year Outlook (simple view)
Headline: “Wetter than average conditions ahead with elevated flood risk.”
| Period | Rain vs Normal | Flood Risk | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 (Sep–Nov) | 156% | Moderate | Wet phase timing + early storms |
| Summer 2025/26 (Dec–Feb) | 187% | High | La Niña peak; severe storms more likely |
| 2025–2029 (multi-year) | Avg 132% | Elevated | Run of wetter-than-normal years |
Agriculture flags: “Make sure drainage is in place” and “Secure gear and sheds against storm winds.”
Live climate drivers (plain-English)
La Niña: Active
Typically means more rain for the east. For local creeks, that lifts flood odds, especially when systems stall or repeat.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): Neutral
Little push either way right now. The Pacific signal is doing most of the work.
Southern Annular Mode (SAM): Positive
In spring and summer, a positive phase often lines up with more rain over southeast Queensland.
Month-by-month risk (Oct → Jan)
| Month | Rain vs Normal | Flood Risk | What to expect locally |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 2025 (now) | ~156% | 🟡 Moderate | Storms kick in; short-burst downpours can lift creek levels quickly. |
| November 2025 | Above average | 🟡/🔴 Moderate → High | Peak storm season gets close; saturated ground raises run-off. |
| December 2025 | ~187% (near double) | 🔴 High | La Niña peak; repeated systems possible; flash flooding risk rises. |
| January 2026 | Well above average | 🔴 High | Wet season in full swing; creeks and grounds already loaded. |
Odds of flooding (Oct–Jan)
| Level | Chance (Oct–Jan) | Typical local impacts |
|---|---|---|
| Minor | 70–80% | Low-lying crossings wet, paddocks soggy, small creek rises. |
| Moderate | 50–60% | Rural access issues, paddock fencing under water, stock movement needed. |
| Major | 20–30% | Road closures and isolation possible; consider high-ground plans. |
Percentages reflect combined signals from seasonal cycles and current climate drivers. Actual outcomes depend on how systems track and repeat over our catchments.
What to do at home and work
Before November
- Clear gutters, downpipes, driveway grates, and drain lines.
- Tie down or move loose items; walk the yard for wind debris.
- Review your policy and make sure your address details are right.
- Pick two exit routes in case your usual road is cut.
December–January
- Watch creek levels during long rain bands and after midnight storms.
- Keep a simple kit: torches, batteries, first-aid, phone power bank, pet food.
- Follow severe weather updates and local road alerts.
- Use temporary barriers or sandbags if you are near waterways.
Farm & acreage notes
- Field drainage: check fall, clean spoon drains, and open headlands.
- Delay vulnerable plantings to February where possible.
- Move pumps, fuel, seed, and spares above known high-water marks.
- Plan stock access to high ground; mark fence heights at low points.
Tip: keep a paddock log of wet spots and overflow points; it helps with quick fixes after each event.
How to read “% of normal”
“156% of normal” means the season could deliver around one-and-a-half times the usual rain total. For flooding, the pattern matters as much as the total. Several wet weeks in a row can load the ground, so even a mild system later can push creeks up fast.
Bottom line
These are outlooks, not guarantees. Weather shifts, storm paths wobble, and totals can jump with one slow-moving system. Use this page for planning and pair it with official warnings on the day.
