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Forecast Accuracy Analysis
Track how well our predictions match actual weather conditions
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Analysis Period
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Total Data Points
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Historical Comparison
Forecast Performance by Parameter
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| Weather Parameter | Dayboro.au | BOM | Inigo Jones | Best |
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Model Performance Comparison
How We Calculate Accuracy
+Temperature Accuracy
Graduated scoring with realistic thresholds. A 5°C error is considered significant.
- MAE: Average forecast error magnitude
- Bias: Positive = forecast too high
- Accuracy %: Based on MAE vs threshold
Precipitation Accuracy
Categorical and binary accuracy with proper rain/no-rain detection.
- Rain event threshold: 0.5mm
- Categories: None, Light, Moderate, Heavy
- POD: Probability of Detection
- FAR: False Alarm Ratio
Composite Score
Weighted average of all metrics for overall accuracy.
- Temperature: Weight 3.0
- Precipitation: Weight 2.5
- Wind: Weight 1.5
- UV Index & Humidity: Weight 1.0 each
Data Sources
Daily comparison of forecasts against recorded weather station data.
- Dayboro.au: Local WXSIM model
- BOM: Bureau of Meteorology
- Inigo Jones: Temperature & rainfall only